Polymarket Adjudicator

Resolves prediction markets from the primary record, not a token vote. The agent reads a market's question and rules, runs live web search for evidence, and commits a verdict only when the record clears an 80% confidence bar. Below that, it returns UNRESOLVABLE instead of guessing.

Failure shape

UMA-style optimistic oracles resolve disputed markets by token vote, so whoever holds the most tokens can move the answer. In 2025–2026 this settled several large markets on the wrong outcome: a $7M Ukraine minerals market a whale forced to YES on a deal that was never signed by the deadline; a Strategy bitcoin-sale market a few large holders swung to NO despite an 8-K confirming the sale closed inside the window; a ~$237M market on whether Zelenskyy wore a suit that UMA finalized on a no-consensus reading. A resolver that reads the primary record returns what the record supports, and no token balance can vote it down.

What the agent reads

• A curated market (question, options, verbatim Polymarket resolution rules, deadline) or a live Polymarket market via the Gamma API
• Whatever it finds through live web search, prioritizing primary sources (filings, official statements, the publication of record)

Decision

Claude Sonnet 4.6 with web search. It walks the rules in order: check the deadline (a market whose deadline hasn't passed is UNRESOLVABLE, "not-yet-decided"); match the criterion literally; weigh source quality. Then it returns one of:

• RESOLVED (YES or NO) with a winning option, but only at ≥80 confidence — the criterion is clearly met or clearly not met and the primary record settles it.
• UNRESOLVABLE when the record is silent ("source-silent"), credible sources genuinely contradict each other or the criterion is too subjective to settle ("source-contradicts"), or the deadline hasn't passed ("not-yet-decided").

The 80 bar is enforced in both the system prompt and post-processing: a sub-80 RESOLVED is downgraded to UNRESOLVABLE, so "resolved" always means the record genuinely settled it. Every verdict ships with an evidence summary and the source URLs it consulted.

On chain

The agent is deployed sovereign on the Theseus alpha testnet: it holds its own keys and publishes its verbatim system prompt on chain, so anyone can read the exact rules it judges by. Profile: explorer.theseus.network/agents/5DCSpFkH…. There is no second settlement chain; the verdict streams to the client and the agent's identity lives on Theseus.

Code map

• LLM call + verdict logic: ui/src/lib/adjudicator-llm.ts
• Curated markets (verbatim Polymarket rules): ui/src/lib/adjudicator-markets.ts
• Live Polymarket client: ui/src/lib/polymarket.ts
• API route (SSE streaming): ui/src/app/api/agent/adjudicate/route.ts
• UI: ui/src/app/adjudicate/page.tsx

Try it

demo-agents.theseus.network/adjudicate. Pick one of the three real UMA disputes or load a live Polymarket market; the agent streams its search and reasoning, then leads with the verdict and confidence.

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Last updated: June 17, 2026.